Audêncio Victor

BSc, PGDip, MPH, MBA, PhD

Audêncio Victor

Researcher • Epidemiologist • RWE • HEOR • HTA

Evidence Synthesis • Data Science & Big Data • Artificial Intelligence • Predictive Models • Machine Learning • Data Analysis (R, Python, Stata)

01. About

I am an epidemiologist, data scientist, economist, and public health nutritionist working with maternal and neonatal health, and machine learning applied to large health datasets. I have a PhD in Epidemiology at the University of São Paulo (USP), and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) in the UK. I hold a Master's degree in Epidemiology from the Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), a Bachelor's degree in Nutrition from Lúrio University, and a specialization in Public Health with a focus on Monitoring, Evaluation, and Strategic Information (UFBA). I have completed an MBA in Data Science and Analytics at USP, an MBA in Artificial Intelligence and Big Data at the Institute of Mathematical and Computer Sciences (ICMC), and an MBA in Project Management (USP).

Professionally, I have worked as a Researcher at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) in the UK, Technical Consultant in Health (Epidemiologist and Data Scientist) at the World Health Organization (WHO), where I provided technical consultancy to the Ministry of Health in Brazil, focusing on the analysis of COVID-19 indicators and translating data into actionable insights. At the São Paulo State Department of Health, I performed spatial analyses to identify high-risk areas, conducted nowcasting and forecasting for diseases such as meningitis, influenza, and COVID-19.

Additionally, as a Scientific Curator and Data Analyst at the NGO Pacto Contra a Fome — Brazil, I simplified complex scientific data to guide public policies on food security. Earlier in my career, I worked as a nutritionist for the Ministry of Health in Mozambique, managing district-level nutrition programs in Maganja da Costa and contributing to national studies on malnutrition prevalence in collaboration with UNICEF and the World Food Programme (WFP).

I am an active member of research groups such as LABDAPS (USP) and Rede-CoVida, and I serve as a reviewer for national and international scientific journals. I have a strong interest in quantitative methods applied to health, including descriptive, inferential, and Bayesian statistics, mathematical modeling, and predictive methods using machine learning algorithms. My goal is to contribute to global health by leveraging these skills. In my daily work, I utilize tools such as SPSS, STATA, R, Python, and QGIS to provide data-driven solutions to public health challenges.

Keywords

Epidemiology Cardiovascular Diseases Fetal Programming Nutrition Biostatistics Public Health Data Science Machine Learning Food Environment Big Data Maternal & Child Health Health Inequalities
29
Peer-Reviewed Publications
23
Manuscripts Under Review
7
Consultancies
10+
Years in Public Health

02. Professional Experience

Researcher in Health Data Science Jul 2025 – Present
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), UK
  • Developing predictive models for stillbirths and neonatal deaths using logistic regression, machine learning (XGBoost, random forest), and neural networks
  • Managing and analysing large multi-country datasets (>280,000 birth records) from 15 African countries
  • Designing reproducible data pipelines and validation frameworks (cross-validation, AUC, AIC/BIC)
  • Contributing to the MARCH Centre and Maternal & Newborn Health Group
Scientific & Epidemiological Consultant Mar 2026 – Present
Brazilian Ministry of Health & PAHO — Influenza Vaccination Impact Study
  • Evaluating the impact of influenza vaccination on hospitalisations and deaths across Brazil
  • Integrating burden-of-disease estimation, vaccine effectiveness parameters, and epidemiological modelling
Scientific Consultant — UNDP/PNUD Jan 2026 – Present
United Nations Development Programme & Brazilian Ministry of Human Rights
  • Development of national social and economic indicators for persons with disabilities using large-scale microdata
  • International benchmarking, multidimensional poverty metrics, and labour market inclusion analyses
Epidemiologist in RWE — PAHO/WHO Sep 2023 – Nov 2024
Pan American Health Organization / World Health Organization, Brasília, Brazil
  • Technical consulting to the Ministry of Health on COVID-19 surveillance indicators
  • Advanced data analysis for public health decision-making and resource allocation
  • Contributed to developing national health policies and guidelines
Epidemiologist / Data Scientist Jul 2024 – Dec 2024
Epidemiological Surveillance Center "Prof. Alexandre Vranjac" / São Paulo State, Brazil
  • Spatial analyses for respiratory diseases; nowcasting and forecasting for meningitis, influenza, COVID-19
  • Developed predictive models for strategic health decision-making
Scientific Curator & Data Analyst Nov 2023 – Feb 2025
Pacto Contra a Fome, São Paulo, Brazil
  • Translated scientific complexities into actionable insights for food security policymaking
  • Led evidence-based policy projects using data-driven approaches
Data Scientist / Researcher 2022 – Present
LABDAPS — Big Data and Predictive Health Analytics Laboratory, USP, Brazil
  • Applied ML algorithms for disease outbreak prediction and health risk assessment
  • Authored scientific articles and supervised undergraduate students
Nutrition Program Manager & Scientific Director 2016 – 2023
Ministry of Health, Mozambique
  • Managed district-level nutrition programs; coordinated with SMI, HIV, TB departments
  • Led research activities; focal point for Konzo Disease Mitigation Program
  • Focal Point for Nutrition and Food Security Research (SETSAN) in Zambezia

03. Education

Current
Postdoctoral Researcher in Health Data Science
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), UK
2025 – Present
Predictive Modelling of Stillbirths and Neonatal Deaths Using Multi-Country Cohorts
Supervisors: Eric Ohuma and Joe Akuze
Completed
Ph.D. in Public Health – Epidemiology (Grade 6)
University of São Paulo (USP), Brazil
2022 – 2025
Gestational weight gain and its effects on fetal growth, neonatal outcomes, and maternal mental health: Integration of Machine Learning and Generalized Estimating Equations in two Brazilian cohorts
Sandwich period at LSHTM (Advisor: Eric Ohuma) | Advisor: Patrícia H. C. Rondó | Co-advisor: Alexandre D. P. Chiavegatto Filho | FAPESP Fellow
Completed
Master's in Public Health – Epidemiology (Grade 7)
Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Brazil
2020 – 2021
Influence of Food Environments on Premature Cardiovascular Mortality in Brazil
Advisor: Rita de Cássia Ribeiro Silva | CAPES Fellow
Completed
MBA in Data Science & Analytics (360h)
University of São Paulo (USP-Esalq), Brazil
2022 – 2024
Development of a predictive model for low birth weight using machine learning algorithms
Advisor: Francielly Almeida | PECEGE Fellow
Completed
MBA in Artificial Intelligence & Big Data (440h)
ICMC – University of São Paulo, Brazil
2024 – 2025
Machine learning models for fetal weight estimation based on ultrasound biometry
Advisor: Ricardo Cerri | FIAP Fellow
In Progress
MBA in Project Management (400h)
University of São Paulo (USP-Esalq), Brazil
2024 – 2026
Application of project management methodologies in longitudinal epidemiological research: a proposed governance framework
Advisor: Fabiana Da Silva Podeleski
Completed
PGDip in Public Health (Monitoring, Evaluation & Strategic Information) (374h)
Federal University of Bahia (UFBA-ISC), Brazil
2022 – 2023
Ethics and justice in the implementation of big data algorithms in healthcare: focus on AI
Advisor: Adriana Galdino Batista Pereira | Ministry of Health Fellow
In Progress
Bachelor's in Economics
Catholic University of Brasília (UCB/DF), Brazil
2024 – Present
Completed
Bachelor's in Human Nutrition
Lúrio University, Mozambique (Sandwich at Federal University of Viçosa, Brazil)
2012 – 2015
Socioeconomic Profile and Lifestyle in Patients with Type II Diabetes Mellitus Treated at the Central Hospital
Advisor: MSc. David Comala | OGE/CAPES Fellow

04. Publications

2026
Predictive models for stillbirths and neonatal deaths: protocol for a global scoping review with focus on sub-Saharan Africa
Wellcome Open Research
2026
Home isolation capacity after COVID-19 diagnosis in vulnerable communities of two Brazilian cities: TQT COVID-19 Study
Revista de Saúde Pública
2026
Novel clinical nomogram for predicting unfavourable tuberculosis treatment outcomes: A logistic regression risk model
Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health
2025
National and regional temporal trends and forecasting of preterm birth in Brazil: evidence from National birth data (2014–2023) with projections to 2030
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
2025
Implications for newborn and child growth classification using INTERGROWTH-21st and WHO child growth standards
BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology
2025
Global performance of machine learning models to predict all-cause mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis
Scientific Reports
2025
Artificial intelligence in global health: An unfair future for health in Sub-Saharan Africa?
Health Affairs Scholar (Oxford University Press)
2025
The role of artificial intelligence in maternal and child health: Progress, controversies, and future directions
PLOS Digital Health
2025
Risk factors for mental disorders in pregnant women in two cities from São Paulo, Brazil: A cohort study
PLOS ONE
2025
Prevalence and determinants of chronic non-communicable diseases among prison inmates in Tete, Mozambique
BMC Public Health
2025
Mental health and gestational weight gain: A comparison between Brazilian cohorts
PLOS ONE
2025
Nomogram predicting overall survival in hospitalized cervical cancer patients in Mato Grosso, Brazil
Discover Oncology, 16(1):1312
2025
Improving meningitis surveillance and diagnosis with machine learning: Insights from São Paulo
PLOS Digital Health
2025
Factors associated with death from COVID-19 in traditional peoples and communities in Brazil
PLOS ONE
2025
Predicting low birth weight risks in pregnant women in Brazil using machine learning algorithms
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
2025
Afro-diasporic food culture: ancestral bonds to strengthen the connection between Brazil and Africa
Journal of Food and Afro-Diasporic Culture, 6(1)
2024
Predictive modeling of gestational weight gain: a machine learning multiclass classification study
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
2024
The impact of gestational weight gain on fetal and neonatal outcomes: the Araraquara Cohort Study
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
2024
Predictors of inadequate gestational weight gain according to IOM recommendations and Intergrowth-21st standards
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
2024
Predictors of Nutritional Recovery Time in Children with Severe Acute Malnutrition in Mozambique
Journal of Public Health
2024
Social Inequalities in Child Development: Analysis of Low-Birth-Weight Trends in Brazil, 2010–2020
Journal of Prevention
2024
Antibiotic prescribing patterns in pediatric patients using the WHO AWaRe classification in Nampula, Mozambique
Scientific Reports
2023
Association between food environments and fetal growth in pregnant Brazilian women
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
2022
Influence of Unhealthy Food Environment on Premature Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Brazil: An Ecologic Approach
American Journal of Preventive Medicine
2022
Inappropriate use of antibiotics and its predictors in pediatric patients in Nampula, Mozambique
Antimicrobial Resistance & Infection Control
2022
Association Between Education Level and Premature Death from Cardiovascular Diseases in Adults in Brazil
Research, Society and Development
2022
Prevalence and Factors Associated with Food Insecurity Among Adults with HIV/AIDS in Mozambique
Research, Society and Development
2022
Demographic analysis of the population in Sofala Province and access to health services in Mozambique
Research, Society and Development
2020
Social distancing measures in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic: potential impacts and challenges in Brazil
Ciência & Saúde Coletiva
2026
Machine Learning for Predicting Mortality in Women Diagnosed with Breast Cancer in Mato Grosso, Brazil
PLOS Medicine
Submitted
2026
Development and Validation of ML Models and Clinical Nomograms for Predicting Overall and Breast Cancer-Specific Survival
NPJ Nature
Submitted
2026
Association between Serum Vitamin D Levels and Gestational Weight Gain: Araraquara Cohort Study
BJOG
Submitted
2026
Maternal mortality among international and internal migrants in Brazil: A nationwide data linkage study (2011-2018)
BMJ Public Health
Submitted
2026
Neonatal mortality data quality in Tanzania: Analysis of DHIS data from hospitals (2015–2024)
PLOS ONE
Under peer review
2025
Deep Learning–Based Classification of COVID-19 on Chest X-Ray Imaging: A Systematic Review
BMC Medical Imaging
With editor
2025
Inequalities in vaccination coverage among children aged 12–23 months in ten sub-Saharan African countries
BMC Public Health
Submitted
2025
Machine learning models for predicting childhood anemia in Mozambique
BMC Pediatrics
Revision requested
2025
Machine Learning–Based Survival Modelling and Risk Assessment of Under-Five Mortality in Mozambique
npj Digital Medicine (Nature Portfolio)
Submitted
2025
Machine learning for predicting hospital mortality in cervical cancer patients
BMC Cancer
With editor
2025
Prevalence and Risk Factors for NCDs in LMICs: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
BMC Systematic Review
Revision in progress
2025
Social Vulnerability and Tuberculosis in Brazil During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
Scientific Reports
Submitted
2025
The impact of maternal 25(OH)D on foetal growth and adiposity: The Araraquara Cohort Study
British Journal of Nutrition
Submitted
2025
Relationship between maternal and umbilical cord vitamin D concentrations and neonatal size
British Journal of Nutrition
Submitted
2025
Lifetime cervical cancer screening in Sub-Saharan Africa after the WHO's 2020 elimination initiative
BMJ Open
Revision in progress
2025
Predictors of under-five mortality in Mozambique: a survival model using DHS data
BMC Public Health
Under peer review
2025
Ethics and fairness in the implementation of ML algorithms in healthcare: An integrative systematic review
Ethics and Information Technology
Revisions requested
2025
Modelling gestational weight gain trajectories and risk of adverse birth outcomes using SITAR
Lancet Americas
Submitted
2025
Longitudinal association between gestational weight gain and arterial elasticity during pregnancy
In preparation
In preparation
2025
Challenges in antibiotic prescribing patterns in paediatric patients in different regions of Africa
BMC Systematic Review
Under peer review
2025
Prevalence and predictors of anaemia in children under 5 in sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review and meta-analysis
BMC Public Health
Under peer review
2025
Immediate causes of death among chronic treatable diseases in Brazil between 2013 and 2023
Under peer review
Under peer review
2025
Gestational weight gain and maternal perinatal and postpartum outcomes in LMICs (GWG Pooling Project)
The Lancet
Under peer review (consortium member)

05. Skills & Tools

Programming & Data

R Python Stata SPSS SQL QGIS Git R Markdown

Machine Learning & AI

Random Forest XGBoost Neural Networks Deep Learning Ensemble Methods MLflow scikit-learn

Statistics & Epidemiology

Bayesian Statistics Logistic Regression Survival Analysis SEM GEE Spatial Analysis Meta-Analysis Causal Inference

Languages

Portuguese (Native) English (Proficient) Spanish (Basic) French (Basic)

Research Methods

Cohort Studies Systematic Review Nowcasting Forecasting DAG-based Inference Target Trial Emulation

Affiliations

MARCH Centre (LSHTM) LABDAPS (USP) Rede CoVida UFMS Research Group

06. Get In Touch

I am always open to discussing research collaborations, consulting opportunities, and data science projects in public health. Feel free to reach out.