Audêncio Victor

BSc, PGDip, MPH, MBA, PhD

Audêncio Victor

Researcher • Epidemiologist • RWE • HEOR • HTA

Evidence Synthesis • Data Science & Big Data • Artificial Intelligence • Predictive Models • Machine Learning • Data Analysis (R, Python, Stata)

01. About

I am an epidemiologist, data scientist, economist, and public health nutritionist working with maternal and neonatal health, and machine learning applied to large health datasets. I am currently a Researcher in Health Data Science at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), University of London, where I contribute to a Wellcome Trust–funded project on predictive modelling for stillbirths and neonatal deaths across Sub-Saharan Africa, teach the postgraduate course Statistical Methods in Epidemiology, and supervise MSc dissertations. I am also a Visiting Researcher at PROADI-SUS, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein (São Paulo), conducting methodological research on non-communicable disease surveillance, multimodal health-survey strategies, and predictive modelling using national surveillance data.

I hold a PhD in Public Health – Epidemiology from the University of São Paulo (USP), with a visiting fellowship at LSHTM. I also hold a Master's degree in Epidemiology from the Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), a Bachelor's degree in Nutrition from Lúrio University, and a Postgraduate Diploma in Public Health (Monitoring, Evaluation & Strategic Information, UFBA). I have completed MBAs in Data Science & Analytics (USP-Esalq), Artificial Intelligence & Big Data (ICMC-USP), and Project Management (USP-Esalq), and a specialization in Health Economics & HTA (UNICAMP, ongoing).

Professionally, I worked as a Technical Consultant (Epidemiologist and Data Scientist) at the World Health Organization (PAHO/WHO), supporting Brazil's Ministry of Health with COVID-19 data analysis and policy guidance. At the São Paulo State Health Department I conducted spatial analyses, disease forecasting (meningitis, influenza, COVID-19), and predictive modelling. As Scientific Curator and Data Analyst at Pacto Contra a Fome, I translated complex evidence into actionable insights for national food-security policy. Earlier, I worked as a nutritionist for the Ministry of Health in Mozambique, leading district-level nutrition programmes in Maganja da Costa and contributing to national malnutrition studies with UNICEF and the World Food Programme (WFP).

I am an active member of research groups including LABDAPS (USP), the MARCH Centre (LSHTM), Rede CoVida, and the Epidemiology, Statistics and Applied Mathematics group at UFMS, and I serve as a reviewer for many national and international journals. My research focuses on quantitative methods applied to public health — descriptive, inferential and Bayesian statistics, mathematical modelling, and predictive machine-learning approaches. In daily work I use SPSS, Stata, R and Python, along with Git/GitHub, R Markdown, LaTeX, Quarto, MLflow, REDCap and KoBoToolbox to support reproducible research.

Keywords

Epidemiology Health Data Science Biostatistics Machine Learning Predictive Modelling Public Health Health Inequalities Maternal & Child Health Cardiovascular Epidemiology Infectious Disease Epidemiology Nutrition Epidemiology Big Data
33
Peer-Reviewed Publications
21
Manuscripts Under Review
6
Consultancies
10+
Years in Public Health

02. Professional Experience

Researcher in Health Data Science Jul 2025 – Present
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), UK
  • Developing predictive models for stillbirths and neonatal deaths using logistic regression, machine learning (XGBoost, random forest), and neural networks
  • Managing and analysing large multi-country datasets (>280,000 birth records) from 15 African countries
  • Designing reproducible data pipelines and validation frameworks (cross-validation, AUC, AIC/BIC)
  • Contributing to the MARCH Centre and Maternal & Newborn Health Group
Visiting Researcher Apr 2026 – Present
PROADI-SUS, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, Brazil
  • Methodological research on non-communicable disease (NCD) surveillance, population-based surveys, and innovative data-collection approaches
  • Systematic review on multimodal data-collection strategies (SMS, IVR, mobile web, CATI) for telephone health surveys
  • Modelling temporal trends in NCD risk factors using Vigitel data (2006–2024): ARIMA, exponential smoothing, Holt's method, Prophet
  • Reproducible analytical pipelines in R and Python informing public-health policy and BI tools
Epidemiologist in RWE — PAHO/WHO Sep 2023 – Nov 2024
Pan American Health Organization / World Health Organization, Brasília, Brazil
  • Technical consulting to the Ministry of Health on COVID-19 surveillance indicators
  • Advanced data analysis for public-health decision-making and resource allocation
  • Contributed to developing national health policies and guidelines
Epidemiologist / Data Scientist Jul 2024 – Dec 2024
Epidemiological Surveillance Center "Prof. Alexandre Vranjac" / São Paulo State, Brazil
  • Spatial analyses for respiratory diseases; nowcasting and forecasting for meningitis, influenza, COVID-19
  • Developed predictive models for strategic health decision-making
Scientific Curator & Data Analyst Nov 2023 – Feb 2025
Pacto Contra a Fome, São Paulo, Brazil (Remote)
  • Translated scientific complexities into actionable insights for food-security policymaking
  • Led evidence-based policy projects using data-driven approaches
Data Scientist / Researcher 2022 – Present
LABDAPS — Big Data and Predictive Health Analytics Laboratory, USP, Brazil
  • Applied ML algorithms for disease outbreak prediction and health risk assessment
  • Authored scientific articles and supervised undergraduate students
Nutrition Program Manager & Scientific Director 2016 – 2023
Ministry of Health, Mozambique
  • Managed district-level nutrition programmes; coordinated with SMI, HIV, TB departments
  • Led research activities; focal point for the Konzo Disease Mitigation Program
  • Focal Point for Nutrition and Food Security Research (SETSAN) in Zambezia

03. Consultancies

Real-World Evidence Consultant Jun 2025 – Present
Precision Data Engineering & Data Science, São Paulo, Brazil
  • End-to-end RWE studies for global pharmaceutical clients using Brazilian public-health data (DATASUS/SUS)
  • Patient journeys, treatment patterns, and clinical outcomes across rare diseases, autoimmune conditions, and biologic therapies
  • Study protocol design, Data Analysis Plans & Shell Tables, regression and statistical modelling, SAP review, and medical writing
Scientific & Epidemiological Consultant — Influenza Vaccination Impact Mar 2026 – Present
Brazilian Ministry of Health & Pan American Health Organization
  • Nationwide evaluation of the impact of influenza vaccination on hospitalisations and deaths in Brazil
  • Burden-of-disease estimation, vaccine-effectiveness parameters, and epidemiological modelling
  • Assessing alternative vaccination-timing strategies across regions and age groups to inform the PNI
Scientific & Epidemiological Consultant — Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir (NMV/r) Nov 2025 – Jan 2026
Brazilian Ministry of Health
  • Nationwide evaluation of early NMV/r treatment and risk reduction for progression to SARS within 28 days
  • Target trial emulation and DAG-based causal inference with linked SUS databases
Scientific & Data Science Consultant — TQT Project Sep 2023 – Apr 2024
Primary Health Care COVID-19 Response Project, Salvador (BA) & Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Brazil
  • Multisite intervention on testing, e-health and telemonitoring in socioeconomically vulnerable neighbourhoods
  • Led epidemiological data analysis, data-quality assessment, dashboards, and reporting
Technical Consultant in Health (Epidemiologist / Data Scientist) Sep 2024 – Feb 2025
PAHO/WHO, Brasília, Brazil
  • Technical consulting to the Ministry of Health on COVID-19 surveillance indicators and epidemiological analyses
  • Technical notes, weekly situation reports, and national monitoring dashboards
Technical Health Consultant (Epidemiologist / Data Scientist) Jul 2024 – Dec 2024
Epidemiological Surveillance Center "Prof. Alexandre Vranjac" / São Paulo State, Brazil
  • Spatial epidemiology, nowcasting/forecasting, and predictive modelling for respiratory diseases
  • Scientific publication and open-source implementation (machine learning for meningitis surveillance)

04. Education

Current
Postdoctoral Researcher in Health Data Science
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), UK
2025 – Present
Predictive Modelling of Stillbirths and Neonatal Deaths Using Multi-Country Cohorts
Supervisors: Eric Ohuma and Joe Akuze
Completed
Ph.D. in Public Health – Epidemiology
University of São Paulo (USP), Brazil
2022 – 2025
Gestational weight gain and its effects on fetal growth, neonatal outcomes, and maternal mental health: Integration of Machine Learning and Generalized Estimating Equations in two Brazilian cohorts
Visiting fellowship at LSHTM (Advisor: Eric Ohuma) | Advisor: Patrícia H. C. Rondó | Co-advisor: Alexandre D. P. Chiavegatto Filho | FAPESP Fellow
Completed
Master's in Public Health – Epidemiology
Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Brazil
2020 – 2021
Influence of Food Environments on Premature Cardiovascular Mortality in Brazil
Advisor: Rita de Cássia Ribeiro Silva | CAPES Fellow
Completed
MBA in Data Science & Analytics
University of São Paulo (USP-Esalq), Brazil
2022 – 2024
Development of a predictive model for low birth weight using machine learning algorithms
Advisor: Francielly Almeida
Completed
MBA in Artificial Intelligence & Big Data
ICMC – University of São Paulo, Brazil
2024 – 2025
Machine learning models for fetal weight estimation based on ultrasound biometry
Advisor: Ricardo Cerri
In Progress
MBA in Project Management
University of São Paulo (USP-Esalq), Brazil
2024 – 2026
Application of project management methodologies in longitudinal epidemiological research: a proposed governance framework
Advisor: Fabiana Da Silva Podeleski
In Progress
Specialization in Health Economics & Management (HTA focus)
University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Brazil
2026 – 2027
Health Technology Assessment of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir (Paxlovid) for severe COVID-19: evidence for SUS incorporation
Advisor: Augusto Cesar Sousa Raimundo
Completed
PGDip in Public Health (Monitoring, Evaluation & Strategic Information)
Federal University of Bahia (UFBA-ISC), Brazil
2022 – 2023
Ethics and justice in the implementation of big data algorithms in healthcare: focus on AI
Advisor: Adriana Galdino Batista Pereira
In Progress
Bachelor's in Economics
Catholic University of Brasília (UCB/DF), Brazil
2023 – 2027
Impact of cash-transfer programmes on poverty reduction and its externalities: the case of Bolsa Família
Advisor: Mateus Silva de Paiva
Completed
Bachelor's in Human Nutrition
Lúrio University, Mozambique (Exchange at Federal University of Viçosa, Brazil)
2012 – 2015
Socioeconomic Profile and Lifestyle in Patients with Type II Diabetes Mellitus Treated at the Central Hospital
Advisor: David Comala | CAPES/AULP Fellow

05. Grants & Fellowships

Doctoral Fellowship — FAPESP
University of São Paulo, Brazil
Mar 2024 – Jan 2025
The Influence of Gestational Weight Gain on Fetal Growth and Neonatal Outcomes: Araraquara Cohort Study
Grant 2023/07936-3 · R$ 120,000 · Advisor: Patrícia H. C. Rondó
Research Internship Abroad Fellowship — BEPE-FAPESP
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), UK
Jan 2025 – Nov 2025
Research on Gestational Weight Gain Using Machine Learning Approaches
Grant 2024/18309-2 · £22,800 · Supervisor: Eric Ohuma
CNPq Grant — National Research Council of Brazil
USP · UNIFESP · Imperial College London
Jan 2025 – Dec 2026
GAS-Brazil Study: Algorithmic Generalization in Health Across the Five Regions
Total budget R$ 275,389.70
CNPq Collaboration with CIDACS/FIOCRUZ
UFBA/CIDACS/FIOCRUZ & LSHTM
2025 – 2027
Influence of Air Temperature and Heat Waves on Nutritional Status and Child Feeding Practices in Brazil
Total budget R$ 509,480.00
CAPES Master's Scholarship
Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), Brazil
2019 – 2021
Influence of Food Environments on Premature Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in Brazil
Total budget R$ 36,000 · Advisor: Rita de Cássia Ribeiro Silva

06. Teaching & Supervision

Instructor (Post-Graduate) — HNT-5707, Methods for the Assessment of Nutritional Status of Populations
University of São Paulo, Brazil
  • Co-taught with Prof. Patrícia H. C. Rondó and Prof. Wolney Lisboa Conde (weekly 4-hour sessions)
  • Lectures and practicals on anthropometry, biomarkers, survey methods, and R-based epidemiological analysis
Instructor — Epidemiological Data Analysis in R
University of São Paulo, Brazil
  • Hands-on sessions on data cleaning, visualisation, regression modelling, and reproducible workflows (R Markdown, Git)
Statistical Methods in Epidemiology (SME)
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Advanced training in statistical methods for epidemiology, applied in teaching and practical sessions
Undergraduate Supervision
Lúrio University, Mozambique
  • Titina Da Deolinda Mirrione — Food consumption and nutritional status of children in Muatala (2017)
  • Quinho Zaona Muxirima — Hygiene-sanitary conditions in take-away food establishments in Nampula (2016)
  • Geraldo Bartolomeu Mateus — Nutritional status and eating habits in adolescents in Nampula (2016)

07. Publications

2026
Survival analysis of under-five mortality predictors: Evidence from the 2011 and 2022/23 Mozambique Demographic and Health Surveys
BMC Public Health
2026
National and regional challenges of antibiotic prescribing patterns in pediatric populations across Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis
BMC (Systematic Review)
2026
How do structural inequalities influence COVID-19 hospital mortality among traditional peoples and communities? A cross-sectional study in São Paulo, Brazil, 2021–2023
BMJ Public Health
2026
Machine learning models for predicting childhood anemia in Mozambique: analysis from national survey data
BMC Pediatrics
2026
Implications for newborn and child growth classification using INTERGROWTH-21st and WHO child growth standards
BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology
2026
Predictive models for stillbirths and neonatal deaths: protocol for a global scoping review with focus on sub-Saharan Africa
Wellcome Open Research
2026
Home isolation capacity after COVID-19 diagnosis in vulnerable communities of two Brazilian cities: TQT COVID-19 Study
Revista de Saúde Pública
2026
Novel clinical nomogram for predicting unfavourable tuberculosis treatment outcomes: A logistic regression risk model
Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health
2025
National and regional temporal trends and forecasting of preterm birth in Brazil: evidence from national birth data (2014–2023) with projections to 2030
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
2025
Global performance of machine learning models to predict all-cause mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis
Scientific Reports
2025
Artificial intelligence in global health: An unfair future for health in Sub-Saharan Africa?
Health Affairs Scholar (Oxford University Press)
2025
The role of artificial intelligence in maternal and child health: Progress, controversies, and future directions
PLOS Digital Health
2025
Risk factors for mental disorders in pregnant women in two cities from São Paulo, Brazil: A cohort study
PLOS ONE
2025
Prevalence and determinants of chronic non-communicable diseases among prison inmates in the city of Tete, Mozambique
BMC Public Health
2025
Mental health and gestational weight gain: A comparison between Brazilian cohorts
PLOS ONE
2025
Nomogram predicting overall survival in hospitalized cervical cancer patients in Mato Grosso, Brazil
Discover Oncology, 16(1):1312
2025
Improving meningitis surveillance and diagnosis with machine learning: Insights from São Paulo
PLOS Digital Health
2025
Factors associated with death from COVID-19 in traditional peoples and communities in Brazil
PLOS ONE
2025
Predicting low birth weight risks in pregnant women in Brazil using machine learning algorithms: data from the Araraquara cohort study
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
2025
Afro-diasporic food culture: ancestral bonds to strengthen the connection between Brazil and Africa
Journal of Food and Afro-Diasporic Culture, 6(1)
2024
Predictive modeling of gestational weight gain: a machine learning multiclass classification study
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
2024
The impact of gestational weight gain on fetal and neonatal outcomes: the Araraquara Cohort Study
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
2024
Predictors of inadequate gestational weight gain according to IOM recommendations and Intergrowth-21st standards: the Araraquara Cohort Study
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
2024
Predictors of Nutritional Recovery Time in Children with Severe Acute Malnutrition in Mozambique: Survival Analysis Approach
Journal of Public Health
2024
Social Inequalities in Child Development: Analysis of Low-Birth-Weight Trends in Brazil, 2010–2020
Journal of Prevention
2024
Antibiotic prescribing patterns in pediatric patients using the WHO AWaRe classification at a quaternary hospital in Nampula, Mozambique
Scientific Reports
2023
Association between food environments and fetal growth in pregnant Brazilian women
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
2022
Influence of Unhealthy Food Environment on Premature Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Brazil: An Ecologic Approach
American Journal of Preventive Medicine
2022
Inappropriate use of antibiotics and its predictors in pediatric patients admitted at the Central Hospital of Nampula, Mozambique
Antimicrobial Resistance & Infection Control
2022
Association Between Education Level and Premature Death from Cardiovascular Diseases in Adults in Brazil
Research, Society and Development
2022
Prevalence and Factors Associated with Food Insecurity Among Adults with HIV/AIDS Treated at a Reference Hospital in Mozambique
Research, Society and Development
2022
Demographic analysis of the population in Sofala Province and access to health services in Mozambique
Research, Society and Development
2020
Social distancing measures in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic: potential impacts and challenges in Brazil
Ciência & Saúde Coletiva
2026
Cardiovascular disease mortality in a Central-West Brazilian capital: a spatial, temporal, and ecological analysis
Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health
Under Review
2026
Machine Learning for Predicting Mortality in Women Diagnosed with Breast Cancer in the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil
PLOS Medicine
Under Review
2026
Development and Validation of Machine Learning Models and Clinical Nomograms for Predicting Overall and Breast Cancer-Specific Survival and Patient Risk Stratification
BMC Cancer
Under Review
2026
Association between Serum Vitamin D Levels and Gestational Weight Gain: Analysis of the Araraquara Cohort Study
BJOG
Under Review
2026
Maternal mortality among international and internal migrants in Brazil: A nationwide data linkage study (2011–2018)
BMJ Public Health
Submitted
2026
Neonatal mortality data quality in Tanzania: Analysis of District Health Information System (DHIS) data from 28 regional and 7 tertiary hospitals (2015–2024)
PLOS ONE
Accepted (28 May 2026)
2025
Social Vulnerability and Tuberculosis in Brazil During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Nationwide Ecological Analysis
Scientific Reports
Accepted (30 Apr 2026)
2025
Deep Learning–Based Classification of COVID-19 on Chest X-Ray Imaging: A Systematic Review
BMC Medical Imaging
Under Review
2025
Inequalities in vaccination coverage among children aged 12–23 months in ten sub-Saharan African countries: Insights from DHS (2017–2022)
BMC Public Health
Submitted
2025
Machine Learning–Based Survival Modelling and Risk Assessment of Under-Five Mortality in Mozambique
npj Digital Medicine (Nature Portfolio)
Submitted (23 Dec 2025)
2025
Machine learning for predicting hospital mortality in cervical cancer patients
BMC Cancer
Under Review
2025
Prevalence and Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Chronic Diseases in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
BMC (Systematic Review)
Revision
2025
The impact of maternal 25(OH)D on foetal growth and adiposity: The Araraquara Cohort Study
British Journal of Nutrition
Submitted
2025
Relationship between maternal and umbilical cord vitamin D concentrations and neonatal size: The Araraquara Cohort Study
British Journal of Nutrition
Submitted
2025
Lifetime cervical cancer screening in Sub-Saharan Africa after the WHO's 2020 elimination initiative: An analysis of DHS data
BMJ Open
Revision in progress
2025
Ethics and fairness in the implementation of machine learning algorithms in healthcare: An integrative systematic review
Ethics and Information Technology
Revisions requested
2025
Modelling gestational weight gain trajectories and risk of adverse birth outcomes using SITAR: Findings from two Brazilian cohort studies
Lancet Americas
Under Review
2025
Longitudinal association between gestational weight gain and arterial elasticity during pregnancy: Evidence from the Araraquara Cohort Study in Brazil
Under review
Under Review
2025
Prevalence and predictors of anaemia in children under 5 years of age in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis
BMC Public Health
Under peer review
2025
Immediate causes of death among chronic treatable diseases in Brazil between 2013 and 2023
Under peer review
Under peer review
2025
Gestational weight gain and maternal perinatal and postpartum outcomes in LMICs: Individual participant data meta-analyses (GWG Pooling Project)
The Lancet
Under peer review (consortium member)

08. Editorial, Peer Review & Recognition

Editorial Board

Epidemiology International Journal (EIJ) — 2022–Present

Journal Reviewer

American Journal of Preventive Medicine PLOS ONE BMJ Open BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth BMC Gastroenterology BMC Infectious Diseases Maternal & Child Nutrition PeerJ Journal of Public Health São Paulo Medical Journal Ciência & Saúde Coletiva JMIR Medical Informatics Annals of Medicine Digital Health Communications Medicine Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition J. of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde & others

Awards

Best Employee of the Maganja District — 2019 (Government of Maganja, Zambezia, Mozambique)

09. Skills & Tools

Programming & Data

R Python Stata SPSS SQL QGIS Git/GitHub R Markdown Quarto LaTeX REDCap KoBoToolbox

Machine Learning & AI

Random Forest XGBoost Neural Networks Deep Learning Ensemble Methods MLflow scikit-learn

Statistics & Epidemiology

Bayesian Statistics Logistic Regression Survival Analysis SEM GEE Spatial Analysis Time Series (ARIMA, Prophet) Meta-Analysis Causal Inference

Languages

Portuguese (Native) English (Proficient) Spanish (Basic) French (Basic)

Research Methods

Cohort Studies Systematic Review Nowcasting Forecasting DAG-based Inference Target Trial Emulation

Affiliations

MARCH Centre (LSHTM) LABDAPS (USP) Rede CoVida UFMS Research Group

10. Get In Touch

I am always open to discussing research collaborations, consulting opportunities, and data science projects in public health. Feel free to reach out. References available upon request.